Week 11 odds in the NFL feature an NFC North clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. NFL odds for this matchup have the Browns as 1-point home favorites, but the real eye-opener is an Over/Under which sits at just 32.5, one of the lowest totals in recent NFL betting history.
That number is even more shocking when you consider that the majority of games even close to this total had extreme weather, and this should be a relatively mild afternoon in Cleveland. With that said, here are my best free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Browns on November 19.
Steelers vs Browns odds
Steelers vs Browns predictions
To say the Pittsburgh Steelers offense is pathetic would be an understatement. This is a unit that features poor play-calling, terrible pass blocking, and a ground game that churns out just 4.0 yards per carry.
Kenny Pickett remains at quarterback with few weapons around him, ranking 28th in the league in QBR (36.3) while his 179.6 passing yards per game comes in dead last.
What’s shocking is that Pickett might actually be the better passer in this matchup. With Deshaun Watson done for the year with a shoulder injury, the Cleveland Browns have named fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson their starter for Sunday. Thompson-Robinson started against the Ravens in Week 4 and completed 19 of 36 passes for just 121 yards while throwing three picks.
After that disastrous pro debut, veteran P.J. Walker started the next three games but completed just 49% of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions. As awful as those numbers look, Walker displayed more composure than Thompson-Robinson, but his lack of upside has resulted in Cleveland’s brass opting for the rookie who flashed during the preseason.
Thompson-Robinson also has the edge in another key area: his ability to run. He boasts a blazing 4.56 40-yard-dash and had 24 yards on four carries against Baltimore while rushing for 646 yards in his final season at UCLA.
Cleveland’s usually stout offensive line is also in a tough spot, with both starting tackles on the IL and Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller questionable with a calf injury. That means that Thompson-Robinson will be under plenty of pressure coming off the edge, courtesy of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
That should result in DTR taking off under center and trying to make plays with his feet. He should have success with that since the Steelers allow 4.5 yards per carry and just lost both starting inside linebackers to season-ending injuries. Take the Over on his rushing yards prop, which is set at just 19.5 yards.
If there’s one thing that this Cleveland offense can do at a somewhat decent level, it’s run the ball. Jerome Ford is coming off a 107-yard performance against the Ravens, and the Browns will likely lean on him against a Pittsburgh defense that’s getting gashed on the ground.
The Steelers are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and could be even worse with both starting LBs sidelined by season-ending injuries and defensive linemen Cam Heyward and Montravius Adams questionable as well.
My best bet: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 19.5 rushing yards (+100)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Steelers vs Browns same-game parlay
Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 19.5 rushing yardsJerome Ford Over 49.5 rushing yardsJaylen Warren Over 36.5 rushing yards
+525 at DraftKings
With this line at close to a pick’em and an extremely low total on the board, this should be a low-scoring game where both teams rely on their ground games. While I’m wary about betting the Under at such a low number, I do like several rushing yards props to cash.
The Browns will lean on Ford against a Pittsburgh defense that’s getting gashed on the ground. In addition to season-ending injuries to linebackers Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb, defensive linemen Cam Heyward and Montravius Adams are questionable as well.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren was finally named Pittsburgh’s starting running back last week after outplaying Najee Harris for the entire season. Warren rewarded the Steelers with 101 yards on a season-high 15 carries and he also rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries the previous week. Even against a stout Cleveland defense, Warren’s rushing yards total is too low at 36.5.
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