The Los Angeles Rams welcome the Seattle Seahawks to settle their Week 11 odds on Sunday. This is the mother of all revenge games, with the Rams clobbering the Seahawks 30-13 in front of their home fans in their season opener. Since then, the Seahawks have won six of eight games while the Rams have lost six of eight.
Books are expecting a much closer contest than the first meeting, with NFL odds set at nearly a pick ’em for this west-coast showdown. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Seahawks vs. Rams on November 19.
Seahawks vs Rams odds
Seahawks vs Rams predictions
This is an interesting matchup because that first meeting, way back in Week 1, was such an outlier. The Rams went into hostile territory as 4-point underdogs and came away with a dominant 30-13 victory while boasting a 426-180 edge in yards.
It’s important to note that the Seahawks’ pathetic offensive performance in that contest was due in large part to the absence of both starting offensive tackles. They actually scored on three of their first four possessions with left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abraham Lucas on the field, but after losing them to injuries, quarterback Geno Smith was under constant pressure and managed just 15 passing yards after halftime.
Cross is back at LT and Stone Forsythe has since settled into the RT spot, which should give Smith enough time to exploit a vulnerable Rams defense. Keep in mind that despite that sterling performance in Week 1 the Rams are just 26th in the league in pressure rate while ranking 24th in defensive DVOA.
This is a Rams defense that lacks playmakers outside of defensive lineman Aaron Donald and rookie edge rusher Byron Young. They really struggle in the back end where they play zone at the sixth-highest rate in the league but have the worst coverage grade in zone per PFF. Even if the Seahawks don’t have wide receiver Tyler Lockett (questionable with a hamstring injury), D.K. Metcalf and emerging rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba are good enough to burn this secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks might be a bit overrated and rank a modest 20th in defensive DVOA. Sure they didn’t have safety Jamal Adams or standout rookie corner Devon Witherspoon for that first meeting, but Adams is questionable again and the Rams were also missing their best offensive player Cooper Kupp in that previous showdown.
The Rams are coming off a bye after scoring just three points against the Packers in Week 9, but they didn’t have QB Matt Stafford in that contest and backup Brett Rypien was beyond terrible. However, they had an efficient attack at the start of the year and ranked sixth in the league in offensive EPA through the first six weeks.
With Stafford and right tackle Rob Havenstein back in the lineup, they should be able to move the ball against Seattle here. Take the Over.
My best bet: Over 46 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Seahawks vs Rams same-game parlay
Over 46DK Metcalf Over 68.5 receiving yardsNoah Fant Under 2.5 receptions
+375 at bet365
Metcalf is coming off a terrific performance against the Commanders where he hauled in seven of 12 targets for 98 yards. He should continue to get plenty of targets on Sunday, especially if Lockett doesn’t suit up.
Metcalf has been a bit inconsistent this year but the 2020 Pro Bowler takes this division matchup very seriously, as his cheap shot on Ahkello Witherspoon in Week 1 and head-butting Jalen Ramsey last year would suggest. While he needs to play with more discipline, his intensity means that we’ll see a highly-motivated 235-pound receiver eager for revenge after that embarrassing loss in Week 1.
The Under 2.5 on Noah Fant’s catches is juiced to -190 but there’s still value especially when you use it to boost the payout in a parlay. Fant is Seattle’s most talented pass-catching tight end but he’s still on the field for just under 60% of snaps while Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly rotate in.
Smith doesn’t often target his tight ends and Fant has gone below this number in six-straight games. In fact, during that six-game stretch, he’s seen just 11 targets and has come away with only eight catches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All UsersSmith, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, 6+ combined pass TD+140 BOOSTED to +200! Claim Now
All UsersBet $20 in NFL same-game parlaysGet $10 in bonus bets! Claim Now
All Users50% boost 4+ leg parlay/SGPe.g. +300 BOOSTS to +450! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
